It’s not unusual these days to equate China with the future. The country’s rise to power, depending on one’s viewpoint, brings either apocalypse or opportunity. It is hard to ignore that China wields the world’s largest standing army, or that its economic growth is astronomical. A recent increase of its military budget by 17.6 per cent has prompted two rival powers in the Asia-Pacific region, Japan and the U.S., to cry in alarm. There has been talk that this signals a transition to Chinese hegemony, replacing the U.S. as the world’s superpower.
China’s neighbours and the U.S. have reasonable fears of greater Chinese bellicosity. China possesses a terrible record on human rights and press freedoms. Its nonchalance when cooperating with terrorist-sponsoring states is also worrying.
But despite China’s growing presence, talk of superpower status is both premature and imprudent. One often forgets that China faces massive problems that are growing. Economically, it is pressed by issues of demographics and resources. Due to the onechild policy, there is a strong possibility that the next generation of Chinese labourers will not be large enough to replace the retiring generation preceding them, creating a top-heavy population. The Chinese Communist Party, in its constant attempt to maintain legitimacy within a one-party system, will find its ability to provide for the elderly severely challenged by a fall in tax revenues.
Energy is also a growing concern as the Chinese middle class expands both in its size and taste for a greater range of consumer goods. Cars, computers, televisions, air conditioning—all are required to fuel the next generation of young, modern Chinese. Such consumption does not seem sustainable. Demand outstrips supply in places such as Shanghai, where there are mandatory blackouts during summer nights. If China desires international legitimacy as a “world leader,” its current mode of operation—oil bought from countries with suspect human rights records like Venezuela and Sudan—is problematic. Moreover, China faces a diplomatic obstacle from pressures to reduce the carbon emissions caused by its economic growth.
A one-child policy poses problems for the ever-prized stability that the CCP perpetually seeks to maintain. In regions of the country difficult for the state bureaucracy to reach, infanticide of girls is common. For every 100 girls, there are 115 boys, who are often seen as future breadwinners. The implications for China’s social fabric are dire.
Moreover, it does not seem that China is inclined in its nature to overtake the United States. In many ways, China’s buying into the World Trade Organization and compliance with various international norms crafted by the U.S. indicate that it would rather work within the system than overthrow it. China also lacks a fundamental ideological challenge to the United States. Unlike America’s previous challengers, from Nazi Germany to Communist Russia, China does not possess a value system that would revolutionize the current system. Though the Communist Party is in power, it has long abandoned the red-book days of Mao, embracing various forms of ideological apostasies through capitalism.
What matters is context. Certainly there are problems that cannot be easily dismissed when it comes to growing Chinese military power. But there are far too many challenges for China to overcome before it grows to the hegemonic proportions that could devastate the interests of America and America’s western allies. For the visible future at least, matters of ideology, economy, stability, and demography stand in its way.
