With the federal government’s commitment to ratify the Kyoto Protocol by the end of this year, the debate on the science of climate change and environmental politics is again front and centre. Last week, Environment Minister David Anderson and several experts from the University of Toronto and Western held a public panel discussion on the implications of the Kyoto treaty.
Science is not often used to support policy, but it is essential when it comes to the environment. Although there are scientific issues related to climate change, the panel drew attention to human influences on and the potential effects of climate change.
On Earth there is a natural effect that allows greenhouse gases such as water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane and N2O to warm the Earth’s surface. Without this natural greenhouse the Earth’s temperature would be 33 degrees colder, unable to support human life.
Although there are natural fluctuations in the amounts of certain gases throughout the Earth’s history, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) finds the increased concentrations of these gases (which they say have been relatively stable over the past 10, 000 years) over the past few centuries correspond to increased human activity. Studies in the northern hemisphere show the 1990s have been the warmest decade of the past millennium. While there is some variation between predictions, the IPCC predicts a rise in global temperature over the next hundred years of between 1.4 to 5.8 degrees if a “coordinated global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions” is not undertaken.
The IPCC is considered the leading source of scientific information on climate change and its conclusions are widely accepted in the scientific community. Established by the United National Environment Program and the World Meteorological Organization, the IPCC’s scientific working group involved over 600 scientists from 40 countries worldwide.
U of T panelist Dr. Dan Harvey showed that both optimistic and pessimistic projections of climate change include warming trends. Dr. Gordon McBean of Western also forecasted increasing occurrences of catastrophic weather events such as droughts and hurricanes.
The Kyoto Protocol aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, with Canada setting its own target to reduce emissions 6 per cent below 1990 levels. Anderson emphasized that while Kyoto provides a timeline for these reductions, the federal government set the targets. Plans to meet those targets have been developed via consultations with the provinces, territories and other stakeholders.
The Minister said Canada “should act now to combat climate change” and supported the international treaty by saying, “This is a challenge that requires a global solution. We can’t do it alone.”
Panellists agreed the targets were achievable. Harvey said greenhouse gas emissions could be reduced “through good technology and practice” along with the “modest development of renewable energy sources.” Martin Whittaker, from U of T, indicated major energy companies who chose to tackle the issue early on have experienced economic success and summed up any efforts to reduce emissions as “a tiny step in a 1,000-mile march” to address climate change.
