A looming energy crisis in Ontario was the focus of discussion at a well-attended conference held in Toronto last weekend. Delegates from across Canada’s environmental non-governmental organization (NGO) and sustainable energy sectors participated in the conference aimed at “Greening Ontario’s Electricity Future.” The resounding cry from participants: Ontario’s electricity alarm is ringing, and the snooze button is no longer an option.
“Most people remember exactly what they were doing on August 14, 2003 at 4:15 pm,” said Ralph Torrie, an internationally-respected energy analyst and the conference’s keynote speaker, referring to the indelible mark left by North America’s largest ever power failure. In the aftermath of that pivotal event, many Ontarians are wising up to the energy crisis that experts like Torrie have been warning about for years.
According to Torrie, a partner at Ottawa-based energy consultancy Torrie Smith Associates, Ontario will face a major electricity shortage in the near future without concerted action by government, industry and homeowners alike. “The energy crisis is coming”, he cautions. “I think we have to realistically assume that it’s five years away, or at best six or seven.”
While there are a number of factors contributing to an impending shortage of electricity, the most critical include uncontrolled increases in electricity use, plummeting productivity at Ontario’s aging nuclear plants, and a planned phase out of coal-fired power generation for environmental reasons.
But the real seeds of the crisis, according to Torrie, were sown long ago with misguided policy decisions and insidious political pressures, particularly a ‘nuclear-at-all-cost’ doctrine that characterized Ontario Hydro throughout the 1970’s and 1980’s.
“Nuclear energy in Ontario was a huge historical error,” said Torrie bluntly, pointing out the unreliability, radioactive discharges, enormous cost overruns, and unresolved waste management issues that have plagued the industry since its inception. “This is an industry that has exhibited the opposite of a learning curve.” Torrie is himself a former physicist with Atomic Energy Canada Limited.
Still, despite concern over the possibility of repeating past mistakes, the overall mood at the conference was optimistic. Most delegates were quick to point out that the threat of crisis represents a significant opportunity for energy sustainability, including electricity conservation and tapping renewable sources.
“Ontario is finding itself at an energy crossroads,” notes Deborah Doncaster, Executive Director of the Ontario Sustainable Energy Assocation. “The provincial government must now make far-reaching energy choices, which opens the door for new ways of thinking.”
Foremost among these choices relate to the nuclear industry as a whole. In particular, the Pickering and Bruce nuclear reactors are nearing the end of their useful life, and several studies (including Torrie Smith’s own) indicate that no nuclear power will be available in Ontario beyond 2018 without major reactor replacement programs costing tens of billions of dollars. Furthermore, if these plants are to be replaced, significant technical progress and financial investment must be made within the nuclear industry over the very short term.
David Martin, a senior policy advisor with the Sierra Club of Canada, suggested that the time for political action is now, particularly to avoid spending enormous sums of money trying to maintain an inherently unreliable and environmentally damaging nuclear power base. “Unless we make the political decision that nuclear power must go”, Martin said, “we can’t honestly begin the planning process to move toward a sustainable energy future.”
This nuclear issue is tackled directly in a recently released report by Torrie Smith, “Phasing Out Nuclear Power in Canada.” The report says that Ontario can eliminate all of its coal and nuclear power generating capacity, yet still meet its electricity requirements to 2020 through a combination of improved energy efficiency, development of renewable energy sources, industrial cogeneration, and interprovincial trade. Furthermore, it’s technologically possible and economically practical to implement these methods quickly in order to curtail an electricity supply crisis.
“The real key here is energy efficiency”, said Torrie, adding that Ontario industries and residents can easily double their electricity efficiency without sacrificing residential comfort or economic growth. “All of the technologies we need to have a sustainable electricity system currently exist and are economical.”
An important example is that only about 12 to 14 per cent of electricity consumed in Ontario is actually required for end-use energy-the rest is generally used up for space and water heating, which can be more efficiently accomplished by other means, such as natural gas.
So if it’s so easy, why are we still beating what should be a long-dead horse named “conservation”?
“The only reason we haven’t made significant energy efficiency progress to date is lack of institutional support and lack of imagination,” grumbled Torrie. “We don’t have a technological shortfall and we don’t have the wrong social values. The recipe for a sustainable electricity future is in front of our face.”
All that’s needed is someone to mix the ingredients.
