History has shown that every century has at least two major wars. Delegates from the military and NGOs say that we can only hope for peace, but Canada needs to take a more active role in international affairs to prevent wars of the future.
These delegates gathered at the St. Lawrence Centre in Toronto to debate about the balance of diplomacy, defense and development, and whether Canada should do more to determine its own destiny and the fate of the world.
“We just came from a century where we can kill people at the 100 million rate,” said retired col. Howie Marsh, senior defense analyst with the Conference of Defense Associations. “The long-term trend indicates that in this century we will kill a billion to two billion people in global conflicts.”
Marsh said that since the introduction of gunpowder in 1385, studies of the last 4,000 conflicts show that the amount of wars multiplies by 10 every 100 years.
He suggests that as the population increases from eight billion to 12 billion, the number of psychotic people will increase as well.
“The evil leaders that we had in the last 100 years, we will get that number in the next 50 years,” Marsh said.
His concerns of war were centered mainly on a group or nation attacking the US with nuclear weapons. He said that the U.S. would then retaliate ten-fold with their nuclear armament. But Marsh’s greatest concern is not nuclear weapons but something far more terrifying.
“One of the biggest concerns in the next ten years is DNA-based weapons, where they target racial groups through DNA,” Marsh said.
Olivia Ward, renowned war correspondent for the Toronto Star, hopes for peace in this coming century but foresees many current wars escalating to disastrous levels. Her biggest concern is the conflict between India and Pakistan over Kashmir.
Ten years ago, Ward interviewed people on the Indian side during an escalating period of conflict.
“They had been extremely ready at one point in using them,” Ward said. “And they were only deterred by something as mundane as the weather.”
Ward said that if a nuclear war breaks out in the Indian subcontinent, it would surely be followed by incredible mayhem and could lead to a domino effect bringing the rest of the world into war.
Concerned over the wars in Israel, the civil war in Iraq and a foreseeable revolt in Iran, Ward said that Canada cannot prepare for war because of the unpredictability of how it will catch on internationally. She only hopes that she will not have to report in another war zone like she has done in Chechnya, Tajikistan, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Kosovo, Serbia, Macedonia, Iraq and the conflict in Israel.
Roy Culpeper, the president of the North-South Institute, a Canadian institute focused on international development, also foresees an upcoming war but believes strongly that Canada should not get ready to fight.
“Preparing for war, makes war more likely,” Culpeper said. “We should put a lot more effort in preparing and planning for peace and sustainable and equitable development.”
If history should repeat itself, there should be at least two wars that will effect Canada directly. Although disagreeing on where defense spending should take place, all the panelists at this event shared the view that although Canada is a pacifist nation, it must step up spending in development, diplomacy and defense. This spending is to help Canada take a stand in stopping the conflicts at large across the world and preventing an upcoming world war.
