I began last week’s column by stating unequivocally that there would be an election this fall. Though Canada’s political tides have shifted away from an election since I made this prediction, a fall vote remains a distinct possibility. Everyone would be well advised to keep their lawn signs handy and their campaign pins polished.
However, such an election will likely result in more of the status quo in our parliamentary democracy. Parties will only co-operate in order to maximize their political power, and true co-operation and representation will be left at the House of Commons door. One need only look at last week’s events to see why.
The major turn of events came when NDP leader Jack Layton hinted that his party might support the government in a crucial confidence vote. This, only days after Harper announced he would not engage in “backroom deals” with “socialists” and “separatists,” and after attacking Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff’s supposed agenda to co-operate with such social democrat scum. But to keep his government alive, the Prime Minister found himself suddenly making concessions on Employment Insurance in order to shore up NDP support.
The bizarre circumstance of a deeply conservative Prime Minister pinning the survival of his government on the support of a party that has been his strongest critic, with an Employment Insurance bill the very nature of which contradicts the ideology he has pledged to uphold, has many pundits’ heads spinning. Similarly, there has been an angry reaction on the left from those who view Layton’s support for the Harper government as a betrayal of progressive principles. It is as yet unclear what the long-term implications of this maneuvering will be for either party.
Of the two party leaders, Harper’s position is perhaps the more surprising. His party is leading in the polls and its chief rival, the Liberal Party, is under attack from all sides for its hawkish stance.
The NDP, however, were presented with a more difficult set of conditions. Had they held to their conventional position of no support for the Harper Government, they too would have been accused of being uncooperative and opportunistic, and would have been responsible for denying badly needed benefits to tens of thousands of unemployed workers—many of whom are their constituents. Yet the left’s visceral hatred of the current government, nurtured by two and a half years of anti-Conservative rhetoric from the NDP, has put Layton between a rock and a hard place.
The Liberals have made it clear they intend to fast-track the EI bill, meaning that a non-confidence vote could still topple the government this fall. It’s difficult to see how the NDP will maintain this most precarious of positions for long when the Liberals have declared, “there’s no turning back.”
Taking a step back from the nightmarish haste of recent events, last week not only exemplifies the dysfunctional nature of our current parliament, but the need for a complete overhaul of the parliamentary conventions and procedures that led us to this juncture in the first place. When Harper accused Ignatieff of harbouring a “hidden agenda” to form a coalition with the NDP supported by the Bloc, he again revealed his disdain for parliamentary democracy, which, in a country as multi-faceted as Canada, must function on the basis of co-operation between parties. Michael Ignatieff was quick to take the bait: no coalitions — we’re going it alone.
Under the current circumstances, it is hard to imagine any party securing a majority. And if Canadians do return to the polls this fall, as is likely, they may find themselves with the same formula that produced last week’s stalemate: a group of regional parties unwilling to work together, no substantive discussion or policy, and a government which effectively represents less than one quarter of the electorate.
