Double cohort isn’t the only population wave on the way

Let’s talk about cohorts. The University of Toronto and the provincial government only talk about one—the double cohort—and they talk as if it were the only one. This is a mistake.

Over the next decade, the bulk of the Echo Generation—the children of the Baby Boomers—will be graduating high school and they are expected to apply to universities in record numbers. The Association of Universities and Colleges of Canada (AUCC) predicts that demand for the 645,000 spots at Canadian universities will increase by 30 per cent within the next decade. Compared to this demand, the double cohort is the least of U of T’s worries.

But there is another way of looking at this situation: the double cohort will force U of T to address an increased demand for post-secondary education sooner rather than later. In preparation for the double cohort, the University of Toronto has committed itself to increasing enrolment in direct-entry programs by 9,000 students over four years. Plans are also in place to expand many of U of T’s professional schools and graduate programs, including Nursing, Occupational Therapy, Education, Management and Graduate Studies. U of T will also build an additional 2,600 residence spaces by 2005, an overall increase of over 50 per cent in the number of residence spaces.

The provincial government has contributed to this expansion. In February of 2000, it launched SuperBuild, the largest capital investment in Ontario’s colleges and universities in more than 30 years. To date, the program has allocated $891 million for 59 major projects in the province. U of T’s new Bahen Centre is one of these.

Unfortunately, at its current level of funding, U of T will not be able to maintain its current standard of accessibility and quality of education once the double cohort arrives (along with any subsequent cohorts). For example, the number of admissions scholarship offered by U of T—1,500 per year—will not change. Class sizes are also expected to increase.

In comparison to other universities, such as UBC and the University of Alberta, U of T will be better prepared to offer a post-secondary education to the Echo Generation. Talk about a blessing in disguise.