No media coverage for your party? No chance. That’s just one of the findings of the 2000 Canadian Election Study (CES), conducted in part by one of U of T’s own political scientists, Neil Nevitte.
Interviews with voters and analysis of news coverage revealed that media reports have a deep impact upon the ability of parties to attract votes. “Parties need media coverage,” said Nevitte. “It helps to persuade those who start out undecided.”
With 50 per cent of voters found to be undecided before the campaign, media attention becomes all the more crucial. This, according to Nevitte, is what has tripped up contenders such as the NDP. “The amount of coverage is quite uneven,” said Nevitte. “The two major parties get most of the show…[and] you have to get media attention for the party to get the message out.”
The report, which was published in the recent issue of Electoral Studies, also examined why voters even decide to cast their ballots at all. Results show that Canadians identify less and less with any particular political party. Only about 50 per cent currently profess political alignment.
Lack of allegiance may be one reason why Canadians are declining to show up at the polls. Feelings of powerlessness and lack of interest are two other possible reasons Nevitte cites for low voter turnout.
Whatever the reason, youth are the main perpetrators. “Declining voter turnout since 1993 is almost entirely attributable to the increase in non-voting among young people (24 and under), said Nevitte. “We don’t know why.”
Decrease in turnout isn’t the fault of university students, though. In fact, those with a university education are three times more likely to cast a vote than their less educated counterparts. According to Nevitte, youth without a post-secondary degree were the cause of the greatest concern among his co-investigators. Individuals in this bracket typically had little concern for political matters and only infrequently discussed them.
This discovery has left the CES researchers puzzled. Studies show that increasing numbers of youth are receiving post-secondary education. Interest in politics has also stayed fairly steady across the board. Yet the under-24 age group is still dragging down the turnout percentage. That, says Nevitte, will be a question for investigation in a survey of the next federal election.
The study was a joint venture between professors at Université de Montréal, McGill and U of T. More than 3,500 Canadians were interviewed during the 2000 federal election. A post-election follow-up was conducted through interviews and mail-back questionnaires. Amount and tone of media coverage as well as the impact of leader’s debates were also examined. The study was funded by Elections Canada and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.
