When the off-season officially began, the mandate was simple for Blue Jays general manager J.P Ricciardi: get pitching, pitching and more pitching.
It was a simple shopping list for what most people in Major League Baseball would call the recipe for success. So with owner Ted Rogers’ wallet firmly in hand, Ricciardi set out to nab himself a starter.
What did he return with? Magic beans. Or, to put it in a less fairy-tale way, “growth potential.”
Having failed in his bid to sign overpriced middle-of-the-road pitchers like Ted Lilly (Chicago: five years, $55 million) or Gil Meche (Kansas City: five years, $55 million) Ricciardi had little recourse but to take a chance on several “low risk/high reward options. Enter John Thomson, Tomo Ohka, and Victor Zambrano, each of whom is potentially capable of the type of the performance that Lilly or a Meche would have given, but comes at a fraction of their cost. Thomson and Zambrano were signed to minor-league contracts at base salaries of $500,000 apiece, while Ohka inked a one-year, $1.5 million major league deal.
In total, that’s over $100 million saved over the next five years by signing the young pitchers. Certainly Ricciardi didn’t put a lot of money on the table for his players, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t making a huge gamble. The dilemma for a Jays lineup with serious holes in the middle and back end of their rotation, is that each of these pitchers is a question mark. All three are coming off injury-riddled 2006 campaigns, with Zambrano shut down in May to have ligament replacement surgery on his pitching elbow.
On the other hand, each pitcher comes with some intriguing potential. For a rotation sorely lacking a reliable starter behind ace Roy Halladay, the new prospects could pay immediate dividends. Thomson in particular is at the closest to his statistical peak. With Atlanta in 2004, Thompson posted a career-high 14 wins to go with an ERA of 3.72. For Ohka, 2002 was a magnum opus year, when he authored a statistical line of 13-8 with a 3.18 ERA for Montreal. Zambrano’s best year was arguably 2003, when he went 12-10 with a 4.21 ERA for Tampa Bay.
So now with Spring finally upon us and the Blue Jays set to break camp in one week and head home to Toronto, now seems the perfect time to check on how Ricciardi’s magic beans are sprouting. The signs this Spring have been positive. Ohka has impressed, posting a 3.21 ERA over 14 innings. Zambrano has been even more of a pleasant surprise, considering he is two months ahead of rehab schedule for Tommy-John surgery. His 0.93 era over 9.2 innings could earn him a ticket to Toronto in April. The same cannot be said of the third member of this triumverate: Thompson has struggled with location and command all spring and has a 7.27 ERA in three appearances.
As it stands now, only Ohka is guaranteed one of the two remaining spots in the Jays rotation, first because his performances this spring have justified it, and second because he is the only one signed to a major league contract, meaning he will get paid $1.5 million, whether he plays for the Jays or one of their minor league affiliates. While not a deciding factor, money is always an important consideration in a club’s personnel choices. This explains, at least in part, why the competition for the last spot in the rotation is being headed by incumbent Josh Towers (he of the 2-10 record and 8.42 ERA in 2006). Towers is owed $2.7 million in the second season of his two-year contract. He will be competing with prospect Casey Jannsen (who has added a split finger pitch to his repertoire and subsequently increased his strikeout rates), and Zambrano.
With all this uncertainty at the back end of the rotation, Ricciardi can at least rest easy knowing that he has as good a one-two punch as any team can boast at the top of his rotation. 2003 Cy Young Winner Roy Halladay returns as the best pitcher in baseball not named Santana, and flame-thrower A.J. Burnett brings an equally flamboyant personality to go with his 100-mile-per-hour heater.
How successful the Blue Jays’ team will be is yet to be determined, but one thing is for sure: when it’s all said and done, the praise or blame can be laid squarely on Ricciardi’s off-season moves, where the seeds were sown.
