For many baseball fans, October is the most wonderful time of the year. In 2007 however, September was determined to claim that title. The last month of the regular season was host to one of the closest pennant races in baseball history, featuring a devastating collapse by the New York Mets, who despite boasting a 7-game lead in mid-September failed to make the playoffs by the month’s end, as teams like the Philadelphia Phillies and Cleveland Indians made surprisingly strong finishes. Most notably, the Colorado Rockies won a club-record 11 straight games, forcing a one-game playoff against the San Diego Padres on Monday night. After 13 laborious innings, the Rockies secured the final spot in the post-season. If this September is any indication, we’re gearing up for a stellar and unpredictable October. On that note, here’s a preview of the exciting match ups October promises to offer:
The American League
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
After leading their respective divisions for almost the entirety of the season, it is no surprise to see Boston and Los Angeles in the playoffs. At first glance, it seems like an evenly matched series. Both teams feature a strong lineup, a solid bullpen, and a dominant rotation. But it is often the weaknesses that determine the outcome of the post-season.
An old truism says, “Good pitching stops good hitting.” Although the Red Sox have the offensive power of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, and the Angels boast arguably the best right-handed hitter in the Majors in Vladimir Guerrero (although his postseason batting average is an abysmal .180), the Division Series will be decided by the pitching. On the strength of right-hander Jonathan Papelbon and lefty Hideki Okajima, Boston’s bullpen looks solid. However, neither pitcher has ever played in the post-season. Okajima is also getting over a tired arm that plagued him in September. But the real problem for Boston’s bullpen stems from the one pitcher with post-season experience. Although gagné means “win” in French, relief pitcher Eric Gagné has done anything but that for the Red Sox. Since the Sox acquired him in late July, Gagné has blown four saves and holds an uncharacteristically high 6.75 ERA. Yet manager Terry Francona must know what he is doing, trusting Gagné on the post-season roster. Gagné may have faltered in the American League, but he dominated in the Senior Circuit. He has a familiarity with National League batters that no other Red Sox reliever possesses. It may be a stretch, but Gagné could have been acquired by the Sox solely to pitch against the NL in the World Series. To justify the trade, the Sox need to go all the way.
Similarly, the Angels have two dominant relief pitchers, Francisco Rodriguez and Justin Speier, and one struggling hurler, Scot Shields. But the real pressure will weigh down on starting pitcher, John Lackey. Although a Cy Young candidate, Lackey has gone 0-2 with an 8.38 ERA against the Red Sox this season. He has also experienced problems at Fenway Park, where he will open the series against Josh Beckett. In his career at Fenway, Lackey is 1-3 with a 7.98 ERA. The Angels are equally bad on the road with a 40-41 record away from Angel Stadium. With home-field advantage going to Boston, L.A. will need at least one win at Fenway to advance to the ALCS. Angels’ fans better pray for a miracle.
Prediction: Red Sox in five
Cleveland Indians vs. New York Yankees
After 13 straight playoff appearances, it seems redundant to write a post-season preview of the Yankees. But this is no ordinary year. It is the first time in a decade that New York has failed to secure a spot atop the American League East. The Wild Card may be good enough for teams like the 2006 Cardinals and the 2004 Red Sox, but only first place cuts it for the Yanks. If manager Joe Torre wants to avert the wrath of George Steinbrenner and keep his job, he’ll have to lead New York to victory over Cleveland.
But the Indians have a different plan in mind.
Led by Cy Young candidates C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona, the Indians surged in the final weeks of the regular season, tying Boston for the best record in baseball (96-66). The fact that Sabathia hasn’t faced the Yanks since 2004 may actually play to his advantage. In those three years, he’s developed as a pitcher, and the Yankees will not know what to expect.
To the Yankees’ credit, they do boast the highest-scoring offense in baseball. Even if they fail to bat around Sabathia and Carmona, they can still win games in the late innings. Although Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez provide depth in Cleveland’s bullpen, closer Joe Borowski holds the unfortunate distinction of having the highest ERA ever for a pitcher with at least forty saves. In any case, Borowski doesn’t possess the presence of legendary Yankees closer, Mariano Rivera. With the addition of Joba Chamberlain and the removal of the Joba Rules (meaning that Chamberlain can pitch in backto- back games), the Yankees are virtually unhittable in the eigth and ninth innings. Even if Rivera is past his prime, Joba rules!
Prediction: Yankees in five
The National League
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs
Sometimes a good makeover is all it takes. After a losing season in 2006, the Diamondbacks came back strong with a brand new uniform and the best record in the National League. From last in their division in 2006 to first this year, the Cubs’ revamp came in the form of Lou Piniella―a manager who believed in the team and demanded (and received) results. There’s also that huge amount of money the Cubs spent during the off-season, but as past teams (and this year’s Mets) have proven, money doesn’t always get you into the playoffs.
Behind Piniella, Chicago got to the post-season on a recent power surge. Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, and Derrek Lee combined for 29 home runs in September alone―a promising number for a team that has heavily relied on pitching. But a hot offence won’t help any team against the Diamondback’s stellar bullpen. On the strength of Jose Valverde, Arizona led the Majors with 51 saves. The Cubs will need to score early if they want to bypass the D-backs’ pesky ‘pen. With only one dominant starting pitcher, Brandon Webb, Arizona will give Chicago that chance to score early-inning runs. As long as Steve Bartman doesn’t show up at Wrigley atop a goat, the Cubs are a lock for the NLCS.
Prediction: Cubs in four
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies
These two teams enter the postseason having already played playoff- calibre baseball throughout September. The Phillies miraculously overcame a seven-game deficit to overtake the Mets in the National League East. On top of winning 11 straight, the Rockies defeated the San Diego Padres in a one-game playoff that is already shrouded in the kind of mysticism suited for the postseason. The game ended in the 13th inning after left fielder Matt Holliday reached home without ever touching the plate. Neither the Phillies nor the Rockies could have more momentum coming into October.
But momentum will only take you so far. There is no question that both Philadelphia and Colorado have one of the strongest offences in baseball, though the Phillies have the edge with the combined power of Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, and Chase Utley. Yet neither team has the good pitching to stop the good hitting. Number one starters Cole Hamels and Jeff Francis are the only sure things in the Phillies’ and Rockies’ rotations, respectively. After that, both teams look weak. Nonetheless, the Phillies’ pitching staff is more experienced than the Rockies’ current rookie-laden rotation. Colorado may have the best defense in baseball with only 68 errors on the season, but with their rocky rotation, they don’t stand a chance. This series will find the Phillies touching home plate more than Matt Holliday and the entire Rockies’ lineup.
Prediction: Phillies in four
