Divide the U.S. voting population by Services Canada) age and each five-year segment has a marked party preference, usually by an eight-point spread. Amongst those who turned 20 between 2001 and today, there is a 12-point gap. “It indicates a huge generational shift,” said former Bush speech writer David Frum.

He was speaking at the Hart House library on Wednesday, Jan. 23 in an event co-sponsored by the Debating Society and right-wing think-tank the Fraser Institute.

“It’s a little bit like being a financial writer during the great crash,” said Frum of his new book, Comeback: Conservatism that Can Win Again.

He should know. Once a writer for George W. Bush—he wrote the “axis of evil” speech, though originally called it the “axis of hatred”—Frum has appointed himself as the bearer of bad news for Republicans.

His message: the “Bush babies,” kids who came of age during W’s tenure, are about to take their revenge.

To the conservative writers, such as James Antle and Ramesh Ponnuru, who argue that the policies laid out in Comeback betray the principles of conservatism, Frum replies that it is their attitude that will continue to alienate young voters. “Can you talk about now, please? That’s what I worry about, that there isn’t a way to talk about what’s going on now.”

On Wednesday, to an audience that included hecklers, devotees, and detached watchers, Frum argued that for the Republicans to win again, the party will have to let go of its Reagan-era policies. “There are unintended consequences to every political change, and it’s those we need to confront,” he said.

In the 1980s, Reagan was able to build a strong consensus around the belief that though some might succeed more than others, the population would benefit from neoconservative policies. Today, though, the gap between those who succeed and those who don’t is growing. “The bottom third is still in the 70s, that’s why there’s demand for hope.”

Two other issues facing the party are the broad demographic changes currently experienced in the U.S. as well as the Bush administration’s mishandling of key issues, especially the war in Iraq. Foreign-born Americans, currently at 40 million, are on the rise, as are other groups that traditionally vote Democrat: single women and “the fastest growing religious group,” those who do not attend church. But of primary concern to Frum are people in their 20s: “The trend is most dramatic among young voters.”

“We were the party of science, empiricism, intellect,” he lamented. “This is not the way we’ve been winning arguments in the 2000s.” Today, 70 per cent of Americans say their country is on the wrong track. The figure is staggering considering that when 50 per cent give that response, it’s usually considered a red flag.

Noting how voters form party allegiances based on their reaction to the political events occurring when they are 20-year-olds, the current shift among young voters towards the Democrats will have implications for the U.S. politics for years to come.