Let it be said clearly: the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens don’t like each other. Although their rivalry is fairly new—starting in 1996 and featuring only 27 games between them—it has proven to be ferocious. With questionable hits, controversial calls, and nail biting finishes (and that was only this season), games between these two teams rarely disappoint.
To call it a surprising post-season would be a serious understatement. Huge upsets by the Eagles and Ravens had a similar theme: in today’s NFL, defence wins championships. Although Baltimore gave up almost 400 yards to the formidable Titan offence, they were able to recover two fumbles and an interception to keep them in the game. Sunday night’s match against the Steelers will be decided by interceptions and tackles rather than game-breaking runs and deep throws.
Considering this match features the Steelers’ number one-ranked defence against the number two Ravens, stopping the run will be an integral part of each team’s strategy. Overplaying the run is a potential problem for Baltimore, as tight end Heath Miller and wide receiver Hines Ward have been adept at finding open ground in the secondary all season-long. It is probable that coach Mike Tomlin will try to push back the Baltimore secondary using draw plays on first down.
Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger put any doubts to rest with his brilliant, error-free performance against the Chargers, finishing 17 for 26 with one touchdown and no interceptions. There is no question that he is back in full form after a concussion sustained in Week 17 against the Browns.
Expectations were low for the Ravens offence at the start of the year. With the team pinning their hopes on rookie quarterback Joe Flacco, the results have been nothing short of extraordinary, capped by a huge win against the heavily-favoured Titans last week. Flacco has been steady all season, not letting pressure from the pass rush interrupt his throwing rhythm.
In order to succeed, the Baltimore linebackers will have to contain Willie Parker. The Chargers were unable to corral him, leading to a 146-yard game, helped in no small part by a resurgent Pittsburgh offensive line that opened up running lanes all over the field. But Ray Lewis’ earth-shattering, helmet-popping hit on fullback Ahmard Hall in the game against the Titans should silence those who question if he still has what it takes to lead the Raven’s defence to a conference title.
Led by pro-bowl safety and force of nature Ed Reed, Baltimore’s secondary will have to keep a careful eye on Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward: the former will stretch the pass coverage, allowing the latter to gain key yards with well timed slants and hooks.
James Harrison has been a notable storyline in Pittsburgh this season. As the only undrafted player to win the Associated Press Defensive Player of the Year Award, he has successfully filled the gap left by the departure of Joey Porter. Considering the effectiveness of both Harrison and LaMarr Woodley, Baltimore may have to pass the ball more than usual, relying on Flacco’s steady, powerful arm to move the chains.
Troy Polamalu could be a non-factor in this game. Although he has graced the highlight reel a few times this season with spectacular fingertip interceptions, he is playing with an injured calf that will greatly reduce his closing speed and ability to cover the Ravens’ receivers. Derrick Mason may be able to exploit this weakness and beat the Pittsburgh corners in one-on-one situations. He has been Flacco’s go-to receiver all year, so expect him to get several balls thrown in his direction.
Things to watch for: Turnovers. If the Pittsburgh offensive line can give Roethlisberger time in the pocket, this should minimize the chances of him throwing untimely interceptions when he scrambles. Baltimore’s only chance of earning a trip to the Superbowl is if their offence maintains possession of the ball and puts together consistent drives. There should be more than a few points off turnovers, which could likely decide the outcome.
Final word: The Steelers have momentum in their favour, having won both match-ups during the regular season. However, there is one caveat—both wins were decided by less than five points. Expect a similarly close game that will probably be decided in the fourth quarter. The key stat will be turnovers: the team that coughs up the ball fewer times should win the game.
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
