When it comes to earthquakes, the question is usually not if, but when. As two tectonic plates slide past each other at a boundary, a great deal of energy builds up. Earthquakes occur when these plates slip suddenly and pent up energy is quickly released. Depending on the magnitude of the earthquake, anything ranging from a minor rumbling to the flattening of entire cities may occur.
There is no doubt that the Sichuan earthquake on May 12 of last year was one of the largest natural disasters China has ever seen. With over 69,000 killed, it registered as the 19th deadliest earthquake of all time. As the rubble of destroyed buildings was cleared, serious questions emerged from the dust. Was shoddy construction to blame for the large number of collapsed buildings? Even worse, were crooked officials complicit in letting building code infractions slide?
Even more interesting, some American and Chinese scientists suggest that a reservoir might be to blame for triggering the quake. Although it has not been proven, their suggestion is that the 320 million tonnes of water in the Zipingpu Reservoir may have played a factor. It is a cause of deep concern, and a potential problem for the Chinese government.
If the theory proves correct, it has a precedent: the 1967 Koynanagar earthquake was linked to the massive Koyna dam and reservoir. Although conditions allowing for earthquakes already existed, scientists believe that the weight of the water caused a quake to happen sooner than it should have. The death toll was modest—only 180 died—but the dam sustained structural damage.
The Chinese government is still reeling from the tainted-milk scandal of last year, which sickened 300,000 children. Adding a political angle to a devastating disaster, fresh in the minds of the Chinese populace, is troublesome. The government’s response has already been criticized in the international press, and, if due diligence wasn’t followed in the construction of the Zipingpu Reservoir, the people will demand answers.
The situation gets more complicated still. Chinese scientists and engineers warned of potential problems as early as 2001. Officials ignored these warnings, despite several reports from separate sources.
Considering the glut of hydroelectric projects underway or planned in Southwest China, we can expect that government officials will try to sweep this problem under the rug. A paper published by two researchers from the China Earthquake Administration in December admitted that the reservoir’s water and its mass “clearly affected the local seismicity” for four years before the earthquake. They noted that further research was needed to conclusively link the reservoir to seismic events.
Unsurprisingly, Chinese government officials have blocked the websites of certain environmental groups critical of the Zipingpu project. Although it is agreed that no reservoir, regardless of its size, could cause an earthquake, concerns about hydroelectric projects triggering seismic events before they are supposed to occur are legitimate. Even a few decades could make a world of difference when it comes to causalities stemming from faulty buildings. If corruption and bribery are as rampant as reports indicate, the government needs to act quickly to regain the trust of its people.
The price paid in Sichuan was paid in blood, if the reservoir hypothesis is correct. It is not the first time the Chinese government has put the safety of its people at risk in the name of progress. It may be foolish to hope that it will be the last.
