It’s “Rrroll Up The Rim To Win” season again, and many Ontarians may be surprised to learn they’re less likely than other residents across the nation to win a car in the contest.
Commencing in February and concluding at the end of May, Tim Horton’s “Roll Up The Rim” promotion has been popular in Canada and the United States for the past 13 years. In 2006, it was revealed that the odds of winning a prize—particularly a Toyota—were skewed in favor of Quebec residents, whose chance of winning a car was reported to be one in four million. Ontario residents had a one in 11 million chance at the grand prize.
The “Roll Up The Rim” website assures everyone that the odds are the same everywhere, by mentioning that the odds in favor of winning any prize in Canada are 1:9. Based on the detailed account of distributed cups and prizes among the eight different regions, U of T mathematics and statistics professor Jeremy Quastel commented, “This makes sense: they just divided the total number of cups distributed by the total number of prizes in order to obtain 1:9 odds.”
The website adds that “Tim Hortons audits the 1:9 odds daily while producing Roll Up The Rim To Win cups. Auditor reports are monitored weekly to ensure odds are always 1:9.”
“How do they audit the cups produced? There are so few winning cups, especially for the Toyota,” commented Quastel. “How do they manufacture these? For the small prizes it’s easy, because so many of these winning cups are manufactured, but how do they produce the cups with the bigger prizes, like the car? And how do they decide which stores will receive the winning cups? How do they get these cups into the store? Someone must sneak in at night and mix these cups with all of the others.”
As well, the 1:9 odds are only based on the sum total; when the numbers are examined individually for each region, it is clear that there are inequalities.
The numbers released by Tim Horton’s showed the odds were in favor of those purchasing cups in the “Alberta, Saskatchewan, Northwest Territories, and Yukon” (ASNTY) and “Atlantic provinces, Gaspesie, Iles-de-la Madeleine” regional groupings. Participants in these groups are two times more likely to win a Toyota than those in Ontario.
Individual statistics for each region showed the number of cups distributed in each and the odds of winning each of the prizes. In British Columbia, two winning Toyota cups were distributed in 2006 and the odds of winning were one in 7,990,500. In the ASNTY regional grouping, four Toyotas were distributed in 2006 and the odds of winning were one in 6,077,750.
In Ontario, however, the odds were not as good. Eight Toyotas were distributed and the odds of winning were one in 11,353,500. The probability of winning in the Quebec and Labrador regional group were one in 4,037, with four Toyotas distributed.
Looking at the “Rules and Regulations” section of the Tim Horton’s website, not much has changed since 2006. The number of cups distributed to each region has increased and so has the number of prizes. Therefore, the proportion of cups to prizes for each region has remained the same as it was three years ago.
For some consumers, this reality may make “Roll Up The Rim” less exciting, and they may be less inclined to purchase coffee at Tim Horton’s, particularly in Ontario.
Greg Skinner, a spokesperson for Tim Horton’s, told the CBC in 2006, “There are only 30 cars. If it was all equalized, some places, like P.E.I. or New Brunswick, might not get one at all. This is just about trying to create some excitement.”
However, Ontario residents may not see their lesser likelihood of winning as “exciting.”
