It’s common to wonder where scientists find the inspiration for their research. For U of T physicists G. W. Kent Moore, John Semple, and Dev Raj Sikka, it was a nonfiction bestseller that led them to solve the mystery of the first would-be Everest climbers.
Into Thin Air was a documented account by author and mountaineer Jon Krakauer about a disastrous storm on Mount Everest in 1998 that left nine climbers dead. After reading about it, Moore, Semple, and Sikka became interested in how barometer readings can predict storms ahead of time.
On June 8, 1924 the now famous George Mallory and Andrew Irvine attempted to reach the summit of Mount Everest — only to never return. They were last seen at 12:50 p.m., high on Everest’s Northeast Ridge, and disappeared shortly after. Moore, Semple, and Sikka have always wondered what really happened and have dedicated much of their efforts to finding out.
Based on recently discovered weather data, the storm documented in Into Thin Air was preceded by a drop in barometric pressure of about 10-14 millibars (this indicates that the climbers were, in fact, climbing into very thin air). Researchers now know that the storm consisted of winds moving at 100 kilometres per hour, low temperatures, and poor visibility — in other words, all-around blizzard weather.
On the day that Mallory and Irvine were ascending in 1924, the barometric pressure drop was significantly higher, at 18 millibars, likely making it a more turbulent storm than in 1996.
Determined to solve this much-debated mystery, Moore visited the Geographical Society in London, England, in hopes of finding some clues that could help them understand the deaths of these climbers. He stumbled upon daily barometric pressure readings taken from the base camp on the Tibetan side of the mountain on the day of their climb.
The data were published as part of an Expedition Report in 1926, but were never analyzed. This changed when Moore and Semple published and analyzed the data in the August 2010 issue of Weather.
With those readings, along with temperature measurements and a sea-level pressure map, the researchers found that there was likely a storm during Mallory and Irvine’s ascent that interfered with their climb.
“We determined that during the Mallory and Irvine summit attempt, there was an 18 millibar drop in barometric pressure at Base Camp,” they wrote in a National Post article entitled “Into (very thin air).”
The barometric pressure is essentially the weight of the atmosphere above, Moore told The Varsity.
“There is about 80 per cent of the oxygen at 6,000 metres as there is at sea level, which feels like running on a treadmill and breathing through a straw,” says Moore, adding that barometric pressure determines how much breathable oxygen there is at a certain altitude.
The peak of Mount Everest is located at about 9,000 metres above sea level. Climbing at such high altitudes is dangerous if not done at a good pace and if climbers do not take the time to properly acclimatize, explains Moore. Anything above 7,000 metres is called the “death zone” because the conditions are so harmful to your body.
“When there is a drop in barometric pressure, it’s as if the altitude is increased by 500 metres a day,” he says.
A leading cause of death for mountain climbers is cerebral edema, a condition caused by low oxygen levels and quick altitude changes. This condition involves the accumulation of excessive water in the brain.
Moore believes the climbers would likely have encountered the storm and turned around, never making it to the summit. Mallory’s body was found in 1999, but Irvine’s is still out there somewhere.
Moore is an avid climber who has climbed as high as 6,000 metres above sea level. However, he says he has no interest in attempting to climb to the summit of Everest.
There are, on average, 6 deaths every year on Mount Everest. Perhaps some of these can now be avoided using the storm predictions from barometric pressure readings.
