New U of T research suggests that if current trends continue, Toronto will be divided between wealthy neighbourhoods and poor neighbourhoods, with little middle ground.
Authored by Professor David Hulchanski of U of T’s Cities Centre, The Three Cities Within Toronto suggests that Toronto is divided into three different cities. Using 2006 census data, Hulchanski’s study updates his 2007 study that analyzed the the progression of Toronto’s city neighbourhoods from 1970 to 2001.
The report, published last month, divides Toronto into three “cities.” City #1 consists of high-income earners who are located in the city centre, close to subway lines. This group makes between 20 to 40 per cent above the median income for the city. City #2 and City #3 are the middle and lower income neighbourhoods respectively.
These three groups are defined by the average individual income of their residents. In the neighbourhoods of City #1, the average income is 20 per cent or more above the average individual income for the census metropolitan area as a whole. In City #2, the average income is within 20 per cent above or below the average. In City #3, the average income is 20 per cent or more below the average.
Hulchanski’s research validates his 2007 findings, which indicated that Toronto’s middle class is disappearing. Since 2001, four per cent of formerly middle-income neighbourhoods rose in income. Meanwhile, seven per cent of these middle-income neighbourhoods dropped to lower income status.
Hulchanski stressed that these trends are not only limited to the city boundaries of Toronto. “The suburban municipalities around Toronto are subject to the same trends.”
Income is not the only dividing factor among the three cities. Population, visible minorities, and levels of education are all defining characteristics. City #1, City #2 and City #3 contain respectively 17, 38, and 43 per cent of Toronto’s total population. In 2006, 61 per cent of residents in City #1 had a post-secondary degree compared to 35 per cent in City #2 and 31 per cent in City #3.
Hulchanski’s research suggests that if this trend continues, by 2025 City #1 will consist of about 30 per cent of all Toronto’s neighbourhoods and City #3 will cover 60 per cent of the city. That would leave only 10 per cent of Toronto as middle-income neighbourhoods, down from 66 per cent in 1970.
While difficult, Hulchanski suggests that changes in public policy might halt this demographic progression. “We need the federal and provincial government to work together to fix this problem.”
The research was completed in consultation with both the University of Toronto and St. Christopher House. It was funded through the federal government’s Community-University Research Alliance program.
