The “Can the Leafs squeak into the playoffs” debate has reared its head yet again this year. Although you would be hard-pressed to claim Toronto’s NHL team has a “good” or “probable” chance of making the playoffs, the odds are a lot better than anyone could have possibly suspected even mere weeks ago.
After a 5–4 win over Montreal on Thursday night, the Leafs have creeped within four points of eighth-place Carolina.
This Leafs playoff push is a little bit different than in previous years. In the recent past, the season’s outcome has hinged on whether or not they could slip in, and doing so was the standard for success.
This year, Toronto’s season was written off long ago and the playoffs were, until about a week ago, considered an impossibility. If the Leafs do manage to sneak in, it would be despite their goals for the homestretch and not because of them.
To that effect, this year’s Leafs can expect absolutely no help by Monday’s trade deadline. Any pieces that General Manager Brian Burke adds will be for improving the team over the next two to three years. The moves he might make will only worsen the team in two to three weeks if they serve the long-term.
It’s unquestionable that the Leafs have been charging lately. Thursday’s win gave them a 6–2–2 record in their last ten games, and continuing at that pace, or something near it, should get them into the playoffs, all things being equal.
But can they continue that pace, with a team full of a rookies and players who were in the minors just months ago?
Head Coach Ron Wilson claims they would need to win two out of three for the remaining six or so weeks of the season.
One thing working in their favour is red-hot goalie James Reimer, who is definitely this season’s biggest surprise. He keeps them in nearly every game he starts, and he has the capacity — unlike nearly every goalie the Leafs have trotted out during their playoff drought — to single-handedly steal a game.
A team with as little margin for error as the Leafs have right now will probably need to steal a few wins that they don’t necessarily deserve. Reimer should help with that.
Can they do it at the end of the day? Leafs’ fans would be smart to take a conservative approach, because the odds are still fundamentally against them.
Don’t expect a playoff appearance. But hey, keep the standings in the back of your mind, and should we stumble into some really meaningful late-season games, enjoy ‘em.
