It’s a tough time to be a Liberal in Canada. The most recent polls show that if a federal election, which many anticipate for the spring, were held today, the Conservatives would edge closer to a majority, largely at the expense of the Liberals. The prime minister’s approval rating has steadily risen, while Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff has continued his downward slide in the polls. The Conservatives are out-fundraising the Liberals four to one and have more than enough cash in their campaign war-chest to pump out anti-Ignatieff attack ads by the dozen. Aside from Maxime Bernier’s occasional libertarian outbursts, there are no cracks showing in the Tory caucus.
What’s becoming clear is that it’s time for a serious realignment in Liberal politics in Canada. No longer can the Liberals simply be contented with the expectation that they will eventually win again. It’s time that they build a strategy that can deliver. Successful Liberal campaigns in Canada since the end of the Second World War have been built on three elements: leadership, money, and vision. Paul Martin and Stéphane Dion lost the 2006 and 2008 elections, respectively; because they lacked both money, due to Jean Chrétien’s campaign finance reforms banning corporate donations; and leadership, due to negative public perceptions of their resolve.
Michael Ignatieff lacks all three. If he can’t deliver a significant boost in the Liberal seat count after the next election, then he’ll likely be shown the door. Even if he were to get two dozen more Liberals to Ottawa, it’s unclear whether he’d be able to chip away at Stephen Harper’s lead to make the Liberals viable again. It seems inevitable that the Liberals will be forced to look for a new leader.
What’s not clear is who that would be — there are no leaders-in-waiting in the shadow cabinet. While there will undoubtedly be a number of caucus insiders who will put their names forward and others who will come out of the political woodwork, it’s unclear that they would be any more effective as leaders than were Dion, Ignatieff, or Martin. The Liberals need someone who’s not just capable, but captivating. They need someone who can look and sound more prime ministerial than the prime minister, but who can and will hit hard during question period and in the media. These leaders are rare, skeptics will say, but the challenge that the official opposition faces is deserving of someone with extraordinary talent.
Moreover, the new leader needs be able to bring out donations in a way that none have been able to since campaign finance reforms were introduced by Chrétien and extended by Harper. Public financing is a necessary, but not a sufficient, condition for victory. It is at least partly because of this fundraising gap that the Conservatives maintain such a substantial advantage over the Liberals. The new leader must work hard to revitalize the party fundraising machine to drive small individual donations, which have become the driving force in countries with low political contribution limits.
Furthermore, the new leader needs to persuade insiders and voters alike that he or she has strong, distinctively Liberal values that all Canadians can identify with. Fundamentally, this means a balanced compromise between moderation and progressivism. It means standing up for public services, but being eager to find a way to make them more fiscally sustainable. It means supporting tax reforms, but being careful not to halt innovation and job-creation. It means supporting an active foreign policy, but not jeopardizing our special commitments to the United States and to our NATO allies. Beyond these specific values, what is crucial for the new leader is an ability to explain how Harper is undermining them.
This not only means criticizing the Harper approach, but being able to propose credible, sensible alternatives. The fact that Ignatieff has been reluctant to do so is a response to the dire consequences that Dion faced when he proposed his visionary, if poorly timed, carbon tax strategy during the 2008 election campaign. However, if the Liberals let their fate be determined by the political environment which the prime minister creates, then they cannot hope to improve their political fortunes. The Liberals need to show that they have the vision it takes to lead.
If the super-candidate that I’ve described here could be found, he or she could certainly not do the job alone. The Liberal caucus has been weakened by a whole generation of experienced and talented Liberals who served as Chrétien ministers leaving Parliament. Perhaps it is time that some of them make their political comeback. The same is true of the party organization, which was eviscerated as much by the sponsorship scandal as by two electoral defeats. It is certainly a tough time to be a Liberal, but the time is ripe for someone serious to transform the party.
