Since the last federal election, Canadian voters have enjoyed a much- needed break after the flurry of elections in the past few years. Since Stephen Harper and his federal Conservatives won a stable majority in the spring of 2011, focus has shifted to the instability at Queen’s Park, where the Liberals have the first minority government in Ontario since 1987.
This turn of events has opened the door to yet another interesting area of politics — that of party leadership. This is an especially fascinating process, because it requires parties to stop, reflect, and attempt to renew their image with the electorate. Perhaps nothing is as important for renewal as a change in leadership. It is a process that can tear a party apart or bring it together with a new purpose and focus.
Time and again what these all-important leadership races consistently boil down to is the politics of “page-turning.” This term describes what parties need to accomplish. More often than not, the new face of the party reflected by the new leader, offers a deliberate contrast to the old one.
The Ontario Liberal Leadership convention, which took place recently in Toronto is a current example. Outgoing Liberal premier, Dalton McGuinty, meets the prevailing Ontario political stereotype — male, middle class, middle-aged, good looking, reassuring, with a wife and kids right out of a Sears catalogue. With McGuinty ending his sixteen-year leadership, page-turning politics would lead us to expect McGuinty’s opposite as the new leader. Unsurprisingly, the two front-runners throughout the convention were two members of the opposite sex. At the end of the day, Wynne edged out Pupatello to become the first female premier of Ontario. In her concession, Pupatello quipped that she and Wynne “had the boys on the run,” and they did. From the outset, it appeared that the Ontario Liberals were committed to turning the page.
It isn’t quite that simple, however. Parties not only have to look at the idea of page-turning as the antidote to their departing leader, but must also have an eye to who they will be facing. The federal Liberals are considering this right now. The front-runner for their upcoming leadership race, Justin Trudeau, could be said to offer the exact opposite to his would-be opponent, Stephen Harper. Trudeau is young; Harper is older. Trudeau is proactive; Harper is restrained. Trudeau has sex appeal; Harper has, well, you get the picture.
This field also offers unique candidates in characteristic and policy. Four women are on the ballot, who, if elected, would allow the Liberals a quick contrast to the likes of Thomas Mulcair and Daniel Paillé. You can expect that even if Trudeau does not win, the federal Liberals will offer a page-turner to both the former leader Michael Ignatieff, and Harper.
The search for the right page-turner does not always help parties either. It almost tore the Democrats apart in the historic 2008 election that saw Barack Obama elected as president. The problem was the party could not decide which page-turner they liked best, a black man, Obama, or a woman, Hillary Clinton. Both would have served equally as a compelling contrast to George W. Bush.
What this notion may come down to is the nature of what political scientists term “the middle.” They are the majority of the population that does not have any strong political tendencies, yet almost always decides an election. This group can swing both ways, either left or right. They decide whether to elect a male or a female, a young candidate or an older candidate. In this context, parties must look not only at which way “the middle” is leaning in regard to policy, but also in regard to the attributes of the candidate for whom they are willing to vote.
Stay tuned, pages are turning.
Breen Wilkinson studies Political Science and History.
