It’s an annual tradition in Toronto, as hope springs eternal amongst the Maple Leafs faithful each October. 

Every year, Toronto Maple Leafs fans dream of their team finally ending the NHL’s longest-ever Stanley Cup drought in NHL history, now at 57 years and counting. The Leafs victory in a playoff series against the Tampa Bay Lightning during the 2022–23 season, their first time since 2004, gave hope that this could finally be the year to break the drought. 

However, after their fourth Game Seven loss to the Boston Bruins at TD Garden, the Leafs found themselves stuck in the same narrative: another premature playoff disappointment with an uncertain future ahead.

After a playoff loss, it’s tempting to analyze various statistics to find out what went wrong. As the Leafs enter the 2024 off-season, it’s the numbers that reveal why the team needs significant change. 

With their 2–1 overtime loss to the Bruins in Game Seven, the Leafs playoff series record stands at 1–8 overall during the Auston Matthews era. Since Matthews was drafted in 2016, the Leafs are 0–5 in all Game Sevens. Notably, this marks the third instance out of four attempts since 2013 that they’ve blown a third-period lead to the Bruins in a Game Seven. 

In this playoffs game, Leafs’ forward William Nylander’s opening goal to make the score 1–0 was answered 81 seconds later by Bruins’ defenceman Hampus Lindholm. In overtime, a perfect set play by the Bruins gave forward David Pastrňák the winner to send the Leafs packing.

For a team centred around high-octane offence — finishing second in the league by scoring 3.63 goals per game this regular season — the Leafs’ lack of goalscoring in the playoffs is borderline shocking. The Leafs scored only 12 goals in seven games against the Bruins: a mere 1.71 goals per game. The “Core Four” of Matthews, Nylander, Mitchell Marner, and John Tavares — the esteemed group of forwards around which the Leafs are built — accounted for half of these goals. 

The most alarming statistic, however, is the Leafs’ ineffective power-play in this series. The Leafs’ power-play scored only one goal in 21 attempts throughout the seven-game series. It is unacceptable for the team to have scored more than two goals in a game only once in their last 14 playoff games — a record that dates back to Game Five of their series against the Lightning last season.

There’s no need to delve into advanced metrics to understand why the Leafs are struggling to win in the playoffs. Factors such as injuries, inconsistent goaltending, and refereeing all play a role, but simply put, you need to score goals to win. 

Unfortunately, for the past eight years, the Leafs haven’t found a way to score goals consistently. After years of tinkering with the supporting players around the core, from depth forwards to defensemen, it’s evident that the current roster construction of the Leafs is incapable of winning. 

During the end-of-season press conference, Leafs management seemed to have finally acknowledged the necessity for change. Leafs’ President Brendan Shanahan, General Manager Brad Treliving, and President and CEO of Maple Leafs Sports & Entertainment (MLSE) Keith Pelley took turns answering difficult questions from reporters. 

“I still believe there are times when patience is the suitable call. However, when you see patterns persist, and the results don’t change, you have to adjust the way you think about things,” Shanahan said. 

Since assuming the role of Leafs’ president in April 2014, Shanahan has emphasized an exceptional, process-driven culture in the organization. This culture has played a key role in helping the Leafs achieve their best regular season in their 107-year history in 2021–2022 and in reviving the middling franchise, which had only made the playoffs twice between 2004 and 2016. 

In his commitment to this process, however, Shanahan may have shown too much patience during the team’s transition to become an annual playoff contender, committing to long to medium term contracts for the “Core Four.” 

Even in last year’s end-of-season presser, former Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas, the paragon of process-driven team building, told the media that he would “consider anything with our group” and that “nothing was off the table” after the Leafs’ loss to the Florida Panthers. Perhaps he was ready to make major changes, only to be let go by Shanahan a month later.

Now, a year later, Shanahan is echoing the sentiments expressed by Dubas. In his words, “we will look at everything this summer.”

Pelley gave us another memorable quote from the end-of-season conference: “Good is simply not good enough.” As he also emphasized that the Leafs “need to win. Nothing else matters,” it’s clear that the front office is finally ready to turn a new leaf.

The era of the process-driven Leafs ended when head coach Sheldon Keefe was fired in May. Shanahan then hired former Leaf player Craig Berube to replace Keefe, making the third coaching hire during Shanahan’s tenure as president. With Pelley as the new MLSE President and CEO since January, Shanahan represents the last domino to fall, as Pelley has recognized the need for a change in philosophy.

So how does this change occur? Of course, there are several factors to consider, with the largest question revolving around star winger Marner. His disappointing series against the Bruins, totalling only three points and failing to adapt to their physical gameplan, is concerning. With one year left on his $10.9 million contract, he is considered the most likely of the Core Four to be traded.

Will he indeed waive his no-move-clause, allowing the team to trade him and leave Toronto? What sorts of players will Treliving seek in return? Which free agents will the Leafs re-sign, and how will they fit exciting prospects like Easton Cowan and Fraser Minten into the lineup? Most importantly, how will the Leafs finally foster a culture of winning, where their stars can shine in the playoffs and win when it matters? There’s a lot to figure out to finally bring the Stanley Cup back to Toronto, and this off-season will be nothing short of fascinating to watch.

In the end-of-season presser, Pelley said, “The fans here not only deserve but demand a championship… We’re not here to sell jerseys. We’re here to win.” 

In this new era of the Leafs, the same hope remains.