On September 29, the Toronto Blue Jays lost their final game of the year to the Miami Marlins. However, it didn’t really matter, as they had been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention a week earlier. In fact, it felt as though the season had been over for weeks — if not months — before that.

A sweep at home by the basement-dwelling Marlins was the cherry on top of an underwhelming season for the Blue Jays. The disappointment started last October when the team managed only a single run in two games of the American League Wild Card Series. This theme persisted throughout the year, with the pitching staff arguably being the strongest in the American League, while the offense was mediocre at best. 

After their 2023 playoff exit, the 74–88 Blue Jays entered the offseason with a clear need for a big bat to drive in the runners left on base: a category in which they ranked 29th out of 30 teams. For a brief moment, it seemed the front office recognized this. They began the free agency period targeting Shohei Ohtani, but that short-lived dream ended when he signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers. There was a rumour of a Juan Soto trade, but that, too, fell through when he was dealt to the New York Yankees. 

Blue Jays General Manager Ross Atkins, somewhat bizarrely, opted for a retool instead of pursuing a slugger. A handful of minor signings were made despite the loss of premier third baseman Matt Chapman and the need to bolster the rotation and bullpen after a strong, though likely unsustainable, campaign. Yet, as opening day approached, it became clear that the biggest free agent addition would be then-39-year-old designated hitter Justin Turner. 

The 2024 season got off to a shaky start, to say the least. 

Alek Manoah was out until May after a dramatic regression in performance in 2023. Kevin Gausman, who had been sidelined by right shoulder fatigue in spring training, didn’t quite look like the pitcher who had finished top 10 in Cy Young Award voting each of the past three years. 

Offensive leaders Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and George Springer posted a combined on-base-plus-slugging-percentage under .600 by the end of April. On top of the offensive downturn and confusion with the starting rotation, the bullpen, which had been so effective in 2023, was now dead last in earned-run-average across the majors.

Unsurprisingly, they fell below .500 on April 30 and never recovered. Despite Guerrero’s resurgence to his 2021 form, they became sellers at the trade deadline, parting ways with, among others, reliever Yimi Garcia, utility infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and catcher Danny Jansen in exchange for prospects. The blockbuster move came with the trade of Yusei Kikuchi, who netted three of the Houston Astros’ top-ranked prospects: pitcher Jake Bloss, outfielder Joey Loperfido, and infielder Will Wagner. While the returns for the players they gave up seem favourable, prospect development in MLB is rarely a sure thing, and the outcome remains to be seen.

But regardless of how their newly acquired assets performed, the 2024 Blue Jays season was a disaster. Coming off consecutive playoff appearances, this was supposed to be a team that was within its championship window, but they found themselves 14 games below .500 at the end of game 162. 

The lion’s share of the blame falls squarely on the Atkins administration. The flaws within the organization were glaringly obvious, yet the front office made no efforts to address them. As a result, the outlook roster’s future is far from optimistic, as they find themselves in a similar situation this year. 

The offence once again needs at least one, but likely two, significant signings in the offseason. The bullpen requires a complete overhaul, and both Bichette and Guerrero are entering their final year of team control. With this year’s deep free agent class headlined by generational hitter Juan Soto, and the team being owned by billionaire corporation Rogers, there should be enough talent and financial resources to fill in the gaps. 

If the Blue Jays want to avoid an outright rebuild, the biggest targets would likely be an offensive outfielder — either Soto or Teoscar Hernández — and a third baseman like Alex Bregman. Alternatively, and far less likely, the team could move Guerrero back to third and acquire Christian Walker or Pete Alonso to play first base. 

Whichever of these paths they choose to follow, the next three months will be pivotal for the franchise. It will determine whether the team can bring the World Series back to Canada or go down as one of the worst examples of squandered talent in recent memory.