For the first time in a decade, the Toronto Maple Leafs missed out on a postseason berth, snapping the NHL’s longest active streak for consecutive playoff appearances.

The season’s defining storyline was the departure of first-line winger Mitch Marner in a blockbuster sign-and-trade with the Vegas Golden Knights. The superstar’s absence caused a decline in goals for centre Auston Matthews. Before an MCL tear ended his season, the Leafs’ captain was pacing for a career low in scoring.

Though the trade cleared $10.9 million in salary cap space, Toronto’s committee approach to fill Marner’s role failed to come close to his level of production. Replacements Matias Maccelli, Dakota Joshua, and Nicolas Roy combined for just 74 points, paling in comparison to Marner’s 102-point campaign the season prior. A talent of Marner’s calibre only comes once in a while, and his departure officially marked the end of the Leafs’ “Core Four” era, which was led by Matthews, Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares.

A similar story, set a decade apart

A decade after their last playoff miss, the Leafs find themselves in a similar boat after an underwhelming finish to the season. However, unlike the squad’s stripped-down composition 10 years ago, this team still possesses a considerable amount of high-end talent, even after trading away Marner. Given their bleak draft capital over the next few years, as well as immense expectations from the fanbase, there is pressure on the Leafs to win the Stanley Cup now. 

Entering the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery, the Leafs needed to fall in the top five of the lottery to retain their first-round pick; otherwise, they risked forfeiting control of the asset to the Boston Bruins, due to previous trade conditions. Toronto’s fate rested upon the high-stakes lottery, one that would ultimately determine the direction of the franchise. 

In a lucky turn of events, the Leafs seemingly got a do-over after the costly Marner trade a season ago. The Leafs jumped all the way up to the first pick in the lottery, winning them the chance to draft Canadian prodigy Gavin McKenna.

First for a reason

No burden in professional sports is heavier to carry than being named a first-overall draft pick. Fortunately, it’s safe to say that all the teams that have selected first lately have been hitting the bullseye. 

The Calder Trophy, awarded to the NHL’s best rookie, was won by Connor Bedard in 2024 and Matthew Schaefer in 2026. Both were the first-overall selections in their respective draft classes. Most notably, 2024 first-overall pick Macklin Celebrini took his game to unfathomable heights for a skater in just his second professional season. The centre scored 115 points this season, fourth best in the NHL.

All three players have significantly transformed their teams, and the Leafs have the opportunity to obtain a similarly transcendent player. Now, the spotlight shifts to McKenna, the consensus top prospect in the 2026 draft class. 

Not only is McKenna arguably the best player in the draft, he is also exactly what the Leafs need right now. TSN’s director of scouting, Craig Button, noted in a Lottery Edition Mock Draft article that McKenna fits the specific roster void left by Marner’s departure. “What was the biggest absence for Matthews last year? It was the playmaking winger when Marner left… Well, McKenna is a playmaking winger,” he said. 

In his lone season at Penn State University, McKenna dominated collegiate hockey, tallying 51 points (15 goals and 36 assists). He also represented Canada at the 2026 World Junior Championships, helping them secure a bronze medal.

There is no doubt that McKenna fits the bill for the Leafs. This offseason, however, will be more than just nailing the number one pick — the front office personnel have to make several changes in the summer, and it starts with the one at the helm of the bench.

Berube’s out; who will they take in?

After two seasons serving as the Leafs’ head coach, the organization decided to part ways with 2019 Stanley Cup champion Craig Berube, the mind behind the St. Louis Blues’ first NHL title. During his time with the Leafs, Berube implemented an aggressive, ‘forechecking’ style of play, deviating from former coach Sheldon Keefe’s system focused on possession and puck control.

The elite goaltending duo of Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz masked the flaws of Berube’s system last season. The pair combined for a .905 team save percentage in 2024–2025, good for fourth-best in the league. However, Berube’s offence demands enforcers on the front lines — forwards who have the tenacity to win puck battles along the boards and dictate possessions for their team. 

The Leafs lacked that type of personnel on the roster and therefore struggled to produce shots in the offensive zone. Combined with goaltending injuries and general regression in performance this year, these cracks ultimately led to the team’s significant drop-off.

On May 13, the Leafs let Berube go, shortly after meeting with him regarding his future with the team. Newly-appointed general manager John Chayka said that his decision was “reflective of an organizational shift.”

The coaching market this offseason is headlined by another Stanley Cup champion in Bruce Cassidy, who guided the Golden Knights to their first title in 2023 and would be an interesting heir to the Leafs bench. The new head coach will not only be subjected to Toronto’s merciless criticism but will also inherit the task of maximizing a roster capable of turning things around. 

A roster retool 

Former captain Tavares is nearing the twilight of his career. Despite turning 36 in September 2026, he remains the only dependable option to lead the team’s second line. While Tavares is still producing at a high rate, acquiring more forward depth is a necessity, especially if the team is looking at their roster construction for the long term.

Besides a thin forward group, the defence faced a lot of criticism this season, with critics pointing out its inability to move the puck past the blue line. This need for change makes most of the defence group expendable, with several players emerging as trade candidates.

Brandon Carlo tops the list as he plays the highly sought-after right defenceman position and is currently signed to a team-friendly $3.25 million base salary. Oliver Ekman-Larsson, meanwhile, is also on a cheap contract of $1.5 million in base salary for the 2026–2027 season. However, his prime years are behind him, as he will be turning 35 in July 2026.

Morgan Rielly’s situation is the trickiest of the bunch. He is coming off two of his worst seasons in the league, which makes it hard to justify the $7.5 million contract he is signed to. Chayka will have to make the tough decision of whether to keep the long-serving defenceman or get the most out of him in a potential swap, given his stock is trending downwards as of late.

What are the Leafs building?

An overhaul of front office personnel and a coaching change signal the start of what is about to be the Leafs’ busiest offseason in a while. Beyond expected changes in team personnel, management must take advantage of a lifeline lottery asset that could lead them back to playoff contention. 

The Leafs now face a crossroads for the fate of the franchise, and knowledge of this will no doubt dictate the moves Chayka will execute this offseason. Will his decisions trigger a turnaround, or will they continue the downward trajectory the team started on this past season — leading to an almost-guaranteed red-carpet exit for Matthews in Toronto?