Under the earth, sneaking their way through tiny fissures and holes in billions of square kilometres of the earth’s crust, live the bacteria. They are countless—more numerous by weight than all the forests in the world combined.
Do you think those little bacteria give a damn about global warming? Of course not. They are happy with the heat, and like a lot of other small things—bugs, simple plants, even small rodents or reptiles—they are probably going to be just fine when the planet warms by a few degrees.
Humans, on the other hand, have reason to worry. We live, by-and-large, on the coast, which even if the Kyoto Protocol is signed will still see water levels rise and flood out millions. If the international climate change treaty is ignored, the rise could be even greater, perhaps enough to flood most parts of Vancouver.
But this is ignoring the even larger problem. We, as a species, really can only survive in a very narrow range of temperatures—somewhere between 80 and 100 degrees at the absolute most. Steady exposure too much over +40 degrees Celsius or much under –40, and we’re screwed. Those other organisms that have been around for much, much longer, on the other hand, are happy in almost all extremes of temperature.
What’s more, each rise in temperature speeds the momentum, making it harder to reverse and inching us and the species we depend on for food ever closer to the brink of extinction. To put the severity of even a few degrees’ change in perspective, remember that the difference between present average global temperatures and those of the ice age were only about five degrees.
And while we can (and have proven) our ability to deal with cold, and make the planet hotter, cooling it is another matter. Without getting flip, we invented fire in the caves, but only came up with refrigeration during our last little while on earth. And it gets more complicated when you take into account that greenhouse gasses don’t leave the atmosphere on their own accord, meaning even a cut back to pre-1990 levels, as Kyoto recommends, doesn’t stop us from adding to the gasses in the air. It only slows their progress.
In short, every year and every rise in temperature puts us closer to an edge that is almost impossible to back away from. So not only are we on track to creep toward extinction (while most the world’s far more adaptable biomass chuckles at the silly antics of upright apes), but we may end up over that cliff sooner than we think.
After all, the closer you are the to the edge, the more likely one big wallop can catch you off guard and toss you over. In our case, the disintegration of the West-Antarctic ice sheet would more than qualify as that shove. Dislodged from the quarter of the continent it covers—it is presently not floating—it would push up water level like a handful of ice cubes tossed into a glass. A minimum of six metres is the current estimate.
“No one can be certain whether the West Antarctic ice sheet will disintegrate or not, and so we have to live with the possibility that it might happen,” said researcher John Spouge of the British Antarctic Survey. “Our research says we can’t ignore it.”
And if it goes, so, irreversibly, does a major part of our planet’s cooling system, and the cycle only speeds. Which is why it is sheer idiocy to brand those rallying to get Kyoto signed as tree-huggers—people who simply care about saving the earth more than dealing with real human concerns. This ignores that most of the biomass on earth is fine. We need to be saved. Not the earth.
The evidence of human-made climate change is massive and unassailable. The debate on how to address this problem has been going on for decades, and we know what we need to do. The means of creating more efficient cars, lower emissions and cleaner energy sources are well known. And we know that even a five per cent chance of being kicked over the edge is going to statistically come through at some point—people wager their life savings on worse odds.
Those who oppose Kyoto do so not because of science, or even jobs, but because they are nearsighted—unable to look beyond the next balance sheet or the next election. We need a wider vision, even if it is only saving our sorry asses. Because if you are only looking a few feet in front of you, by the time you see the edge of the cliff, momentum has already driven you over.
THE BIG THAW
The intergovernmental panel on climate change has found that if greenhouse gasses double (as is anticipated in the next few decades without action to curb emissions) ocean levels could rise by as much as 1 metre. The picture above shows the lower mainland, presently home to millions. Below shows what would happened if ocean levels were to rise by 85 centimetres.
If the West Antarctic ice sheet were to disintegrate, as is presently 5 per cent likely, ocean levels would rise by as much as six metres. The image below shows the effect of a mere 3-metre rise. Note the flooding of much of downtown Vancouver and the Mississauga-sized suburb of Richmond
becoming an island.
