With the US presidential election only a year and a half away, which is no time in the US political sphere, there is no doubt that President Obama will be the Democratic Party’s nominee. The Republicans however have a whole slew of potential candidates. With no clear frontrunner and American politics as volatile as ever, the Republican primary season promises to be like March Madness for political junkies. The biggest factor affecting a candidate’s electability will be how they are able to navigate and win the arch-conservative Republican base while still being able to shift to the mainstream for the national election. Obama has it comparatively easy: with no real competition he can sit back and watch the Republicans destroy themselves and pounce whenever he wants, appealing to the centrists from day one. How a Republican candidate will be able to make the big shift and draw in Tea Partiers and moderates alike will be the defining factor in their electability.
The frontrunner in this election appears to be Mitt Romney. He is handsome, wealthy, and has previous executive experience as the former governor of Massachusetts. Romney is a veteran campaigner who tried his hand in 2008 and looks poised for a second attempt. Where things sour for him is on his conservative credentials. Romney was a driving force behind Massachusetts’ health care law (which is disturbingly similar to Obama’s) and this will be toxic in more conservative states. However, he has the ability to make the necessary big shift from the primary to national campaign. This makes him easily one of the most electable Republicans in the field. Any discussion of Romney also inevitably hits on his Mormon faith which will have a negative impact on distrustful evangelicals who make up a sizable portion of the Republican base.
Mike Huckabee is another name from the 2008 primary being floating around. The former governor from Arkansas is a devout Christian and has that “everyman” appeal that can be so successful during a hard-fought campaign. Huckabee will lose points on his conservative credentials (he has pardoned more death row inmates than any other governor) and for his recent support for Michelle Obama’s anti-obesity campaign. Rounding out the 2008 candidates is Ron Paul. He won the Conservative Political Action Conference straw poll for the second year in a row and has a passionate grass roots movement behind him. Paul is an ardent libertarian and is against anything the federal government does that is not specifically authorized by the Constitution. He stands no chance of winning a national election and may just be too “out there” to challenge for the Republican nomination.
Sarah Palin and Michelle Bachmann are both similar in their respective candidacies. Both have emerged at the forefront of the Tea Party movement, both challenge the conception of the Republican Party being male dominated, and both have no serious chance of winning a national election. Palin has more name recognition then Bachmann and could probably raise more money, but this also means she has more public scrutiny. Palin is unlikely to leave her lucrative job at Fox News and her book-speaking tours, especially with her poll numbers so low. Bachmann on the other hand has nothing to lose; this once obscure Minnesota Congresswoman is on the national radar and can only see her stock go up even with an unsuccessful campaign.
Newt Gingrinch is also likely to make a bid but it is unlikely he will get very far. Gingrinch may possess some political genius for his orchestration of the Republican Revolution in 1994 but he has neither the moral character nor the likability necessary to win in the socially conservative South. He is twice divorced, thrice married, and has a track record of marital infidelity. Lack of personal appeal will also relegate Mississippi governor Hailey Barbour to being a non-factor. He is a charmless version of Mike Huckabee and recently came under scrutiny for trying to recast his role in the Civil Rights Movement despite his privileged and mostly segregated upbringing. Gingrinch and Barbour, if they choose to run, will see their fortunes quickly sour.
Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, John Thune, Rick Santorum, and Jon Huntsman all have to deal with their lack of name recognition. This is not necessarily a death sentence: Carter in 1976 and Clinton in 1992 began as little-known outsiders and used their status to their advantage. Pawlenty and Daniels each have experience as governors of Minnesota and Indiana respectively; and Santorum and Thune as senators. Traditionally, governors have fared better at playing the outsider card but no one in this election is a bigger outsider than Jon Huntsman, currently America’s ambassador to China. He has the advantage of speaking Mandarin fluently and perhaps a better understanding of America’s vast overseas debts. It would be unwise to forget about this former Utah governor.
Finally there is Donald Trump. He certainly won’t have to worry about the name recognition (especially when it’s in fifty feet tall gold encrusted letters) or the money, seeing how he has already pledged to spend 700 million on his campaign. Trump might be everybody’s favorite candidate to watch but most will not take him seriously and this will be well justified.
With more than a year of twists, scandals, gaffes, and blunders to come the Republican Party nomination truly has no front runner. What will be the defining feature for who grabs it will not be how they defeat the others but how they will be able to make that sharp transition from appealing to the base to winning over the moderates. There will be no rest for whoever emerges from this heap, when the carnival atmosphere of the Republican National Convention ends; they will have to face Obama and his billion dollar election machine. Defeating him will be the real challenge.
