This weekend, the television industry celebrates those programs and individuals that have reached the pinnacle of artistic achievement over the past year. Well, at least those shows that the voters, exclusively from within the TV business, heard about while they worked on their own projects.
The Emmy Awards often resemble an annual social function where the same guests are paraded before the cameras, alongside a barely tolerable comedy routine. Think of it as the Oscars, but with more people you’ve never heard of, or the Golden Globes without the absent nominees and drunken tomfoolery. Yet, somehow we love them nonetheless. Here are some predictions for who’s most likely to rise to the top of the pack Sunday night.
BEST DRAMA SERIES:
Lost (along with Desperate Housewives) jump-started the struggling ABC network and shifted the focus of television back to scripted series. Such success is appealing to voters, but Lost has several strikes against it. The show is loaded with supernatural elements (a turnoff among voters), and its serial style has not always boded well for past nominees. It’s also a new program, and although it contributed greatly to TV’s turnaround this year, far too much of the credit went to Desperate Housewives. As a result, the revisionist western Deadwood may have the edge in this category, and voters have rewarded HBO programs in the past. Deadwood seems well-poised to secure the victory, if Lost misses out.
BEST LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:
This stale category has seen a much-needed infusion of new personalities this year, the strongest contender being last year’s victor, James Spader. Although The Practice has given way to Boston Legal, the character is identical and Spader’s work as lawyer Alan Shore has improved. Not to be counted out is Ian McShane, who won a Golden Globe this year for his portrayal of the hard-edged Al Swearengen on Deadwood. But don’t overlook Hugh Laurie, whose character battles withdrawal from painkillers on House. This race is tight, but Spader has a slight advantage.
BEST LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES:
The buzz right now is squarely on Mariska Hargitay, who is finally receiving proper recognition for her portrayal of Olivia Benson on Law & Order: Special Victims Unit. The only serious challenge she’s likely to face is from Glenn Close, whose performance helped return The Shield to the forefront of television drama this season. However, Hargitay is still likely to emerge on top, with the rest of the nominees as near-afterthoughts. Hey, at least The West Wing’s Allison Janney can’t win again this year.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:
As is often the case in the supporting categories, this one is pretty much a toss-up. Terry O’Quinn must be considered a frontrunner for his memorable work as John Locke on Lost, and voters may fall in line behind this screen veteran who has finally found his breakout role. However, his selection of tapes is somewhat perplexing, and they are not as strong as those of castmate Naveen Andrews. Also not to be dismissed is Alan Alda, a veritable television legend whose portrayal of Senator Arnold Vinick was one of the key creative turnarounds for former awards powerhouse The West Wing. Best guess? O’Quinn will steal it by a hair.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES:
Another tough one. Deserving performers are confronted by other nominees with Emmy history and tradition on their side. Blythe Danner was surprisingly nominated in three Emmy categories this year for three separate programs, and her nomination here for Huff could certainly translate into Emmy gold. CCH Pounder continues to impress in The Shield, but it may be a case of ‘too little, too late’ after being previously shunned. If the Emmys are in the mood to reward new series, Canada’s own Sandra Oh (finally coming into her own following the surprise success of indie film Sideways) may come away a winner for Grey’s Anatomy.
BEST COMEDY SERIES:
It was terrific to see Scrubs finally nominated in this category, but its chances of victory are slim at best. Everybody Loves Raymond remains a popular Emmy nominee, but departing series have rarely won this award. All signs point to a showdown between last year’s victor Arrested Development and this season’s sensation Desperate Housewives, with the rookie program coming out ahead. Emmy voters are no longer faced with a possible cancellation of Arrested Development, and will not campaign to save it as they did last year. Although Arrested Development is a far more clever and, yes, ‘comedic’ program, Desperate Housewives was a tremendous success for the TV business, and it’s ‘industry types’ who decide who gets the gold.
BEST LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:
The two funniest leading men on television this year, Jason Bateman (Arrested Development) and Zach Braff (Scrubs), both earned much-deserved nominations but suffer from less than stellar episode selections. Ray Romano remains a strong contender, but there may not be enough support for him to nab his second Emmy in this category. A spoiler lurks in Eric McCormack, another past winner for his work on Will & Grace. While his program may have become a creative wasteland, McCormack astutely chose a one-hour episode for submission that will play well among voters. The bottom line: if Bateman doesn’t triumph, expect Romano in his place-if Monk’s Tony Shaloub doesn’t rise to the occasion once again.
BEST LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:
The ladies of Desperate Housewives have become media darlings throughout the past year, and it was no surprise that three of them earned nominations in this category. Unless the critical and media hype for Desperate Housewives is only skin deep, one of them should walk away with this award. Having won the Golden Globe in this same category, Teri Hatcher is the forerunner, assisted by an image that has become associated with the hit series. Yet one shouldn’t count out Marcia Cross, who arguably portrayed a stronger character and also made excellent episode submissions.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:
This year may finally lead to victory for veteran actor Peter Boyle. After years of watching his counterparts on Everybody Loves Raymond rewarded for their performances, Boyle is finally due, now that the long-running series has come to an end. A strong challenge is mounted in this category by the often-overlooked Jeremy Piven, whose addition to the HBO series Entourage was a universally praised aspect of that show. But this is the end of the line for Boyle and Raymond, so Piven’s performance may take a back seat this year.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:
Despite being overshadowed by the phenomenal success of Desperate Housewives this past season, the cast of Arrested Development has continued to put in performances that place them at the height of TV ensembles. Their exceptional efforts, combined with strong industry support, should catapult Jessica Walter to the lead in this category. Everyone Loves Raymond’s Doris Roberts, who has won twice before in this category, could do so again, but the surprising nominations of two supporting actresses from Two and a Half Men should cancel themselves out in the voting, leading to a Walters win.
The Emmy Awards (hosted by Ellen DeGeneres) air Sunday, Sept. 18 at 8 pm on CBS.
