Why the Indianapolis Colts will win
Coaching
The coach of the Indianapolis Colts this year is not the famous Tony Dungy who led the team to Super Bowl victory in 2006, but rather Jim Caldwell, the former Colts quarterbacks coach/assistant head coach. But from watching the Colts play, you would never know Dungy was gone. They have played near-perfect football this season, pulling out wins in every fashion: from the skin of their teeth to winning by three possessions. Going 14 straight games to lock up the NFL’s number-one seed and a first-round bye, Jim Caldwell has had the Colts playing at a level of excellence for some time now. While doubts arose about both Caldwell and General Manager Bill Polian when they decided to bench star quarterback Peyton Manning halfway through game 15 of the regular season, this Super Bowl berth has erased them all.
Although Caldwell knows offense inside and out, another familiar face who will help Manning and the offensive line navigate the New Orleans defence is Tom Moore, the offensive coordinator who has worked with Manning throughout his entire career. Manning will certainly be getting more than a little help from his friends in this Super Bowl.
Offence
The Colts, as many lament, have a very one-dimensional offence, and its name is Peyton Manning. That’s not to say that Manning is one-dimensional, but that the team is a pass-first team. Even though running back Joseph Addai and rookie running back Donald Brown are strong players, the team will rely on Manning and his arm to get them out of a pinch. Because of the incredible talent of their quarterback, the Colts have seen fit to surround Manning with receivers of extraordinary ability these past few years.
In the past, receiver Marvin Harrison was Manning’s go-to guy, but with Harrison gone, Manning has had to look for new faces. Reggie Wayne stepped up in Harrison’s absence, becoming the number-one option in wideouts. Pierre Garcon, after spending most of 2008 as a backup, emerged as a viable threat on the field, catching more than 150 yards along with a touchdown to boot in the AFC Championship game against the Jets. Rookie Austin Collie often plays slotback, and with Manning throwing to him, he already looks like a Pro Bowler. Additionally, tight end Dallas Clark has been a solid option for years, catching passes and trucking defenders left and right. Manning has no dearth of people to throw to, and the Saints defence will definitely have their hands full come Sunday.
Defence
In the NFL standings, the Colts rank near the bottom of the league in stopping the run. One would think this is a bad thing, considering that the run game is an important staple of any offense (the Colts themselves are virtually the only exception right now). One would also think that this would mean problems for the Colts, especially considering that the defensive units for the Saints will have the triple-headed threat of Bush, Bell, and Thomas coming at them. However, in games where running backs were dangerous threats, the Colts all but shut them down. The Jets, who rank first in the league in rushing, were ineffective during the AFC Championship game, and were actually outgained on the ground by the Colts.
The Colts’ defensive line is nothing to laugh at, and their notable stars include defensive ends Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney. Known in the media as the two bookends, they are as fierce as they come when the pass rush is concerned. If the opposing team’s quarterback can see one of these two in his peripheral vision, then the other is undoubtedly coming as well. They have built a reputation as fast-flying hard hitters and if Saints quarterback Drew Brees somehow manages to evade both of them, then he’ll have his hands full trying to throw the ball past Antoine Bethea, the Colts’ safety.
Special Teams
Matt Stover, the kicker for the Colts, has a unique honour heading into Sunday’s Super Bowl. At 42, he will be the oldest player ever to play in the Super Bowl, and the oldest player to win one, should the Colts succeed in their mission. His age does not mean his skills have eroded, however, as Stover has come through for the Colts consistently this season. Four-time Super Bowl winner Adam Vinatieri is still with the Colts, but will not be kicking due to surgery on his knee.
Final Thought
The Colts are a fantastic football team with enormous potential for the future. Peyton Manning won a record-breaking fourth MVP award this past season, and in the AFC Championship Game against the New York Jets, put up almost 400 yards of passing offense. With that under his belt, he’ll definitely be able to throw downfield to his Pro Bowl receivers against New Orleans, the 26th-ranked pass defence in the league.
They call Peyton Manning one of the best QBs to ever play the game. The Colts have his talent, his preparation, and his knowledge. They have his drive, and above all, they have his experience. Stats aside, having Manning on their roster is a pretty clear-cut indication of the forthcoming Colts victory this Sunday.
—Shoaib Ali
Why the New Orleans Saints will win
Coaching
A former quarterbacks coach, Sean Payton joined the Saints in 2006 and was the NFL Coach of the Year by the season’s end. He took a 3-13 team and turned them into 10-6 NFC South champions in his first year as head coach. In short, he knows what he’s doing. His coaching style reflects the greats and is part Mike Tomlin, part Tony Dungy. That is to say he’s especially strong at cultivating his quarterback’s talent (like Dungy), but does not necessarily shy away from deferring to his coordinators. So much of a head coach’s job is to manage, and Payton (like Tomlin) understands the importance of delegating duties to his other coaches. Gregg Williams is an outstanding defensive coordinator. He took a young roster plagued by injuries and forced them to fit into his defensive vision of containing the pass and disabling the run. Similarly, Peter Carmichael Jr., the Saints offensive coordinator, worked well with a young offence and taught his line to protect their superstar in Drew Brees, whose athleticism sometimes puts him in compromising positions. From a coaching standpoint, the Saints are more than equipped to win.
Offence
If the offences of the last few champions are any indication, then we know one thing: balance is key. The Saints offence, led by quarterback Drew Brees, is fairly diverse compared to the Colts. Where Peyton Manning is far and away the biggest threat in the Colts offence, the Saints have proven unafraid to defer to their backfield duo of Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush. Though commentators have chided Reggie Bush for being somewhat of a bust in recent seasons, he’s proven this postseason that he’s a handful for defenders. If the Colts’ defensive performance this season is a fair indication, they will have a difficult time managing the Saints’ run offence. Brees, who set franchise records for passing yards in 2007, is the same type of cerebral quarterback as Peyton Manning. Along with Manning, he is the only quarterback in league history to throw 4,000 yards for four straight seasons, but he just isn’t as skilled. Peyton Manning is probably the best quarterback in NFL history, but Brees is unafraid to widen the field and spread the ball around. Where Manning’s effectiveness resides in a narrow pass-first approach, Brees is more comfortable in his athleticism and running game. This is not to say he isn’t an excellent passer—Brees threw 34 touchdowns and had just 11 interceptions. With receiver Marques Colston comfortable in his post on the outside, and with Brees and his backfield a threat on the inside, the Saints appear to have quite a balanced offensive approach. The Saints offence, in short, functions like a unit. Each player contributes to the machine, and no one player is the machine.
Defence
The Saints defence has been fairly solid all year. Pro Bowler Darren Sharper anchors the unit, which protects Brees adequately, and allowed only 20 sacks all year, an astonishingly small amount considering Brees can be freewheeling at times. Defensive lineman Remi Ayodele is the team’s main run-stopper, having stepped in earlier in the year when Kendrick Clancy went down with a knee injury. Colts running back Joseph Addai should have his hands full with a relatively large defensive line, even by NFL standards. When up against a quarterback like Peyton Manning, ability to stop the run is secondary. The Saints need to be able to stop the pass and pressure Manning from the outside. The Saints, a markedly better defensive unit than the Colts, will rely on Sedrick Ellis and Anthony Hargrove to rush the pass. Hargrove, who did not play a single game last season, saw limited action but racked up five sacks, 11 quarterback hurries, and recovered three fumbles.
Special Teams
The Saints’ special teams are unpredictable. Still, they’ve been able to pull through thus far. Kicker Garret Hartley was suspended for the first four games of the season, then sat inactive for the next seven, replaced by the inconsistent John Carney. Hartley came back for the final five games of the year, going nine for 11. One of the misses was from 58 yards out, so he gets a pass.
Final Thought
As important as strategy is in a game like football, the Super Bowl is well known for being, to borrow from a popular NBA ad, “where amazing happens.” What will matter is resilience in the face of adversity. When the Saints were forced out of the New Orleans Superdome in 2005 (the space was converted into a temporary shelter for hurricane victims), they battled through difficult travel schedules and an injury-riddled roster to have one of their best seasons ever in 2006. With a roster that boasts only eight returning players from their team a few years ago, the Saints have had to rebuild and recreate the same magic that saw them make their embattled city proud back then. They’ve done it, and have had their best season ever in the process.
—Abdi Aidid
