“The people have spoken,” Progressive Conservative (PC) Party of Ontario leader Doug Ford declared in his victory speech on February 27, less than one month after calling a snap election. 

Ford’s landslide victory secured his third consecutive majority government, making him the first Ontario premier to do so since 1959. 

Students and professors expressed no surprise at the outcome, sharing in interviews with The Varsity that both social and institutional factors played into the PC’s sustained success in Ontario elections. 

Election reactions

John DiMatteo — a first-year student studying computer science — attributed Ford’s success to the fact that the opposition parties “have struggled to make in-roads in ridings outside of urban centers.” 

Another first-year student, Joshua Calderon, suggested a related explanation for the PC Party’s dominance was the “failures of a first-past-the-post electoral system.” 

First-past-the-post is the winner-take-all voting system used for federal and provincial elections in Canada. In every electoral district, the candidate with the highest number of votes wins a seat in the House of Commons and represents that electoral district as its member of Parliament.

During the campaign, the Liberals and NDP offered differing platforms to the same pool of voters, trying to offer an alternative to the PCs. Calderon expressed his desire for new leadership in both parties and a hope for future coalition-building. 

“The next election will see the [PC Party] having been in power for a very long time,” added UTM political science professor Randy Besco. “… which tends to make parties and leaders unpopular, so it’s an important opportunity for the other parties.” 

Elizabeth McCallion, a political science professor at UTSG, wrote to The Varsity that the opposition parties must now “play the role of scrutiny,” explaining that since “they don’t hold the balance of power in the legislature, their role will be to pay careful attention to the government’s actions and hold them accountable in the legislature and in the public sphere.”

Economic impacts for Ontario

In his Plan to Protect Ontario, Ford outlines five areas in which his government will work to bolster the Canadian economy against the adverse effects of Trump’s tariffs. One section discusses steps to build Ontario’s economy, which includes “Investing an additional $22 billion in our plan to build.”

Such infrastructure development continues to be a major focus of Ford’s policy-making. DiMatteo commended Ford on these policies that are popular in suburban constituencies, calling Ford’s GO Transit expansion plan a “total game-changer.” 

However, he also expressed doubt as to whether the government would succeed in getting it done, noting delays with existing projects such as in the opening of TTC Lines 5 and 6, as well as the Line 1 expansion to Richmond Hill. 

Discontent with mismanagement was a common theme among students. Second-year economics student Christian Pasquali condemned Ford for “destroying” the Ontario Science Centre. 

In June 2024, the Ford government announced that it would permanently shut down the science centre due to “serious structural issues” identified in an engineering report. Community members largely protested Ford’s decision, attending rallies in Toronto calling on Ford’s government to reverse its decision.

Pasquali also criticized Ford’s $200 “affordability cheques,” which he thinks would have been money better spent on healthcare. Nevertheless, he also noted that “most importantly right now, [Ford is] doing a very good job on standing up to President Donald Trump’s tariff and annexation threats.”

US—Canada relations

The most significant departure of this election from previous Ford victories was the backdrop of US aggression towards Canada, which pervaded campaign rhetoric. Trump’s push for Canada to become the 51st state of the US is increasingly being taken seriously by Canadian leaders. 

Ford spoke to the anger some Ontarians feel over Trump’s threats to Canadian sovereignty, as well as their fear of the looming economic threat posed by tariffs. 

“Make no mistake,” he declared in his victory speech, “Canada won’t start a fight with the US, but you better believe we’re ready to win one.” 

“Realistically,” McCallion pointed out, “it’s not the job of the premiers to negotiate with Trump. Foreign policy is handled by the federal government.” 

Nevertheless, this tension was “perhaps the catalyst Ford needed,” Calderon ventured, saying that, “[Ford] knew how to pander to the masses, read the political environment, and take advantage of it.” 

Professor Besco also noted that the focus on the issue of sovereignty “stopped the opposition parties from making some other issue a major part of the election, which could have been better for them.” 

Since Ford’s victory, Trump has been inconsistent in his tariff promises. While he initially imposed 25 per cent blanket tariffs on Canadian goods, he has now suspended most of them. 

On the other hand, Ford’s response has been decisive: ending a $100 million deal with Elon Musk’s internet provider Starlink, ordering US-made alcohol to be removed from LCBOs, threatening to implement a surcharge or ban of exports of critical minerals to the US, and maintaining his pledge to impose a 25 per cent tariff on electricity sent to the US — despite Trump backing down on his tariff imposition.

Ford has managed to strike a tone of unity with the Ontario public, and he spoke directly to their anger, resilience, and the “Canadian spirit” when he rounded off his victory speech by acknowledging, “We’re in a battle for the future of our province, for the future of our country.”

Campus ridings 

Both University–Rosedale, which covers the UTSG campus, and Scarborough–Rouge Park, covering the UTSC campus, saw clear incumbent victories by large margins. 

NDP MPP Jessica Bell won the University–Rosedale riding with 46.7 per cent of the vote, while PC MPP Vijay Thanigasalam won the Scarborough-Rouge Park riding with 49.2 per cent of the vote. 

Meanwhile, the UTM riding of Mississauga–Erin Mills had an extremely close election, with incumbent PC MPP Sheref Sabawy winning his seat by a mere 20 votes over Liberal Party candidate Qasir Dar.